Third-quarter 2016 broiler production was slightly lower than expected in part because average slaughter weights remained beneath year-earlier levels in September, according to USDA’s latest “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook” report released earlier this week.
Weekly prices for whole broilers (national composite) have remained below year-earlier levels since mid-September. The fourth-quarter forecast was reduced to 72-74 cents per pound and the 2017 forecast was lowered 77-84 cents per pound as large supplies of meat were expected to contribute to downward pressure on broiler prices. These lower prices would likely impact 2017 producer profitability, and the 2017 production forecast was lowered 100 million pounds
Exports in September were the highest since March 2015. Exports to Cuba were the second highest on record, eclipsed only by shipments in January 2008, and have been trending generally upward since April. Exports to Angola were the highest since November 2014. The fourth-quarter forecast for total broiler exports were raised 40 million pounds, and the 2017 export forecast was raised 30 million pounds. The forecast for 2016 year-ending stocks was lowered 40 million pounds as the higher export forecast was expected to dampen the seasonal increase in broiler stocks in cold storage. No change was made to 2017 end stocks.
USDA’s “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook” report is available here.
