Next Tuesday, voters will show how much the political environment has — or hasn’t — changed since last November. Political analysts say the elections next week in a handful of states are really a pulse check on voters ahead of the 2026 midterms. Here are the races to watch.
In Virginia, ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is a favorite over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) to succeed outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who is term-limited. When asked to name the most important issue in the race, 29% of Virginians cited threats to democracy and 24% listed inflation. Immigration ranked third at 12%, followed by taxes (5%), abortion (5%), and crime (5%), according to a new Roanoke College poll. Virginia will elect its first female governor, regardless who wins the race.
In the race for Virginia Attorney General, Jason Miyares, the Republican incumbent, and Jay Jones, the Democratic challenger, are in a tight race that has become the focus of national attention after texts surfaced in which Jones discussed the hypothetical killing of a Republican state lawmaker and his children. A new Washington Post poll shows both candidates at 46 percent; Jones had led by six percentage points in a poll by The Post taken before the scandal broke.
Virginia Democrats also are favored to increase their 51-48 edge in the state House, which will have an impact when new congressional maps are considered next year.
Voters in New Jersey will also be voting for their next governor in a choice between Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, both running to succeed the term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Four public opinion polls released over the past two weeks — from Fox News, Quinnipiac University, Fairleigh Dickinson University and Rutgers-Eagleton — indicated Ciattarelli tightening the margins in the race, in a state where registered Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans.
California is home to the biggest redistricting prize for Democrats, where voters are expected to pass Proposition 50 and implement more Democrat-friendly maps that could flip as many as five Republican seats, a move designed to counter Republican redistricting maps in Texas and other states. Proponents and opponents of Proposition 50 reported raising more than $215 million as of Oct. 2, with much of the money being dished out to pay for a deluge of ads on both sides.
Voters in a vacant Houston congressional district (TX-18) are likely to whittle a 16-candidate special election field down to a two-candidate runoff that would be held early next year. Amanda Edwards (D), Jolanda Jones (D), Christian Menefee (D), Carmen Montiel (R), and 12 other candidates are running in the special election to succeed former Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who died on March 5. This election could have implications for votes in the House. According to The Texas Tribune: “With Turner’s seat vacant, the House breaks down to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, allowing the GOP to win a majority on the floor even with three defections from their ranks. If Turner’s seat were filled, likely by a Democrat, the GOP could withstand only two defections.”
New York City will be voting for its next mayor, and socialist Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead in the polls against former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after losing the primary to Mamdani, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
