The U.S. broiler industry enters 2026 on solid footing, supported by strong consumer demand and favorable economics — but persistent hatching problems, rising construction costs, and a shifting export landscape are tempering what might otherwise be an aggressive expansion cycle, Christine McCracken, executive director and protein analyst at Rabobank, said at the 2026 Annual Meat Conference.
This article originally appeared in WATT Poultry USA.
The outlook for poultry remains “very, very good” following two consecutive strong years, even as producers grapple with supply-side headwinds that are keeping chicken volumes tighter than economic fundamentals alone would suggest, she explained.
“Convenient, affordable and healthy — that’s what consumers are telling us about poultry,” McCracken said, noting that those three attributes continue to drive retail and foodservice demand across all demographic groups.
Younger consumers in particular are increasingly gravitating toward organic, antibiotic-free and no-antibiotic-ever product lines — categories that have posted strong growth even amid broader economic pressures, she added.
Supply growth constrained despite favorable margins
The industry is projecting approximately 1% volume growth in 2026, a modest figure explained in large part by ongoing hatchability issues and elevated bird mortality rates. Genetic shifts made in recent years to address animal welfare and quality concerns have had unintended consequences on flock performance, she noted, with fewer chicks successfully completing the incubation process.
At the same time, hatchery and processing capacity is running near full utilization, and the cost of building new plants has roughly doubled since 2019 — a dynamic that is discouraging capital investment even when margins are attractive. The industry has instead leaned on live weight gains to grow pounds on the market, and McCracken said further weight increases are expected in 2026, though likely not at the pace seen in prior years.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), while a significant disruptor in the egg and turkey sectors, has had a more limited direct impact on the broiler industry, McCracken said. However, she cautioned that disease pressure — including HPAI — remains a risk to plant operations and export access as flocks move into spring.
Retail driving demand, foodservice still strong
On the demand side, retail has been the primary growth engine for chicken over the past year, with McCracken expecting that trend to continue into 2026. She highlighted a notable resurgence in the frozen poultry category, which she described as having been “left for dead” a few years ago before innovation and new product development revived consumer interest.
Foodservice demand, while softer due to high-profile closures and consumer belt-tightening at restaurants, has held up better for chicken than for other proteins, McCracken said, partly because operators have continued to feature chicken as a cost-effective center-of-plate option.
Export disruption reshapes dark meat markets
McCracken described the export environment as “challenging day to day,” with several historically important markets for U.S. chicken now effectively closed or significantly reduced. She noted that chicken paw exports to China — once worth approximately $1 billion annually — have largely disappeared, and total exports have dropped from more than 20% of production to under 14%.
The upside, she said, is that U.S. consumers have demonstrated a growing appetite for dark meat cuts, particularly thighs, allowing the industry to redirect supply domestically. Leg quarter prices have risen as a result, and McCracken said the composite rebalancing has reduced the industry’s vulnerability to export disruptions.
Wings are a current weak spot for poultry. Bone-in wing prices remained depressed heading into Super Bowl season, with McCracken pointing to the continued rise of boneless wings as a structural shift in how consumers and foodservice operators are using the cut.
Attend the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit
McCracken will break down the key trends that will influence consumers in the coming year at the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit, scheduled for July 27-29 at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Serving a unique cross section of the chicken supply chain, the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit will feature the theme “The Protein Moment.” The one-of-a-kind event explores issues and trends in food marketing and consumer chicken consumption patterns and purchasing behavior.
Registration for the 2026 Chicken Marketing Summit is now open. For more information, go to www.chickenmarketingsummit.com.
