Using estimated stocks-to-use ratios as a guide, the “Daily Livestock Report” (DLR) for May 3 suggests that the 2012-13 corn crop year could see an average corn price of between $4.00 to $6.00 per bushel. DLR analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner believe the 2007-2011 stocks-to-use ratios provide the best guidance for determing the future price of corn because the latest years incorporate the impact of using corn for ethanol. Thus, they say a $6 per bushel price might occur if last year’s 147.2 bushel acre yield occurs again and year-end stocks-to-use ratio is about 7 percent.  Also a $4 bushel price would result from a 1996-2011 trend  yield of 163.6 bushel per acre and a year-end stocks-to-use ratio of 13 percent.

For soybeans, a 2012 trend yield of about 43 bushels per acre would result in a roughly 7 percent stocks-to-use ratio next fall and, if last’s year experience is indeed the guide for the new stocks-to-use ratio for soybeans, soybean prices for the 2012-2013 crop year would average near $13 per bushel.