World broiler production in 2020 is forecast to reach 91,947,000 metric tons, 15,956,000 or 21.0 percent more than the 75,991,000 tons produced in 2010, according to a just released study, “World Livestock and Poultry Supply and Demand From 2010 to 2020” by Westside Economic, LLC that was commissioned by Bunge North America.  From 2010 to 2020, 65 percent of the growth in broiler production is forecast to be from Brazil, China-Hong Kong, and the United States.  The European Union and the United States, despite an expansion of their production, are expected to lose global production share.  China-Hong Kong maintain share while Brazil gains relatively in share during the decade, the study said.

World per capita broiler consumption is expected to increase by 9.9 percent from 2010 to 2020.  World per capita broiler consumption moves from 10.9 kilograms per person to 12.0 kilograms per person.  By comparison, from 2000 to 2010, world per capita consumption increased from 8.6 kilograms per person to 10.9 kilograms per person, a 26.2-percent increase.  World chicken consumption increased from 75,127,000 tons in 2010 to 91,644,000 tons in 2020, an increase of 16,517,000 tons or 22.0 percent.  From 2000 to 2010, chicken production increased from 52,900,000 tons to 75,300,000 tons, an increase of 22,300,000 tons or 42.1 percent increase.

The study reported that broiler exports are dominated by Brazil and the United States.  In 2010, these countries accounted for 71 percent of the world’s chicken exports.  Total world broiler exports increased by 30 percent or 2,636,000 tons from 8,793,000 tons to 11,429,000 tons.  Brazil and the United States account for 88 percent of this export growth.  The European Union reduces its exports through the decade.  Export growth in Asia is mostly driven by Thailand.  Argentina accounts for most of the export growth in the regional group defined as South and Central America (excluding Brazil).

The report said that, during the last decade, broiler imports have shifted toward Asian countries (excluding China) and to the Middle East and away from Russia.  China and Hong Kong’s imports of chicken have been fairly flat.  Russia and Ukraine’s imports share of the world’s chicken trade shrunk from 22 percent in 2000 to near 10 percent in 2010.  By 2020, Russia and Ukraine’s imports share shrinks to less than 5 percent.

The world’s chicken imports are expected to increase by 39.1 percent from 7,999,000 tons to 11,127,000 tons from 2010 to 2020.  Asia and the Middle East drive import growth.  China and Hong Kong become consistent importers of chicken through the forecast period, the report added.  Excluding China and Hong Kong, growth in imports in  Asia is expected to be driven by Vietnam.

Selected findings from the report are as follows:

  • Income and population growth have boosted meat and poultry consumption throughout the world.  Increased urbanization has increased consumption by lowering costs of access.  The growth trajectories of meat and poultry supply and demand will drive protein trade flows and feedstuff demand in the coming decade.
  • In the 1990’s, the world’s meat and poultry per capita consumption increased by about two percent for every percent increase in per capita real incomes.  In the 2000’s, the pace of meat and poultry consumption slowed as world incomes expanded.  One percent of real income growth led to a 0.8 percent increase in meat and poultry per capita consumption.  The relationship between real incomes and consumption has been mostly driven by pork and chicken.
  • In the decade ahead, meat and poultry consumption will continue to expand with incomes and as production becomes more commercialized and trade barriers are reduced.  In the coming decade, a one-percent increase in real incomes is expected to increase the world’s per capita consumption of meat and poultry by 0.5 percent.  A series of free trade agreements will facilitate the increase in consumption in many developing economies.  Stagnant consumption in the developed economies will likely slow aggregate demand growth.
  • In most countries, total meat and poultry consumption grows rapidly as real incomes move from subsistence levels to real incomes near $10,000 U.S. per person.  Consumption growth tends to slow above this threshold.
  • Pork and chicken have been primarily drivers of total meat and poultry consumption growth.  This trend will likely continue given the tastes and preferences among consumers in key growth markets, along with adverse production trends for many beef producers.  Turkey will likely remain a niche protein for most consumers.  In the upcoming decade, pork and chicken are expected to account for 90 percent of the increase in meat and poultry consumption.
  • Asia will likely continue to drive aggregate meat and poultry consumption growth.  Asia is likely to account for nearly one-half of the increase in world’s total meat and poultry consumption over the next 10 years.
  • Asia, including India and China, is expected to account for one third of the increase in world’s chicken consumption from 2010 to 2020.  In Asia, outside of China and Hong Kong, Vietnam is expected to lead chicken consumption growth.
  • Among regions, the Middle East is expected to have the highest consumption growth rate for chicken in the coming decade.  South and Central America are expected to account for nearly one quarter of the increase in the world’s chicken consumption, lead by growth in Brazil.  Brazil’s consumption growth is expected to slow as the per capita consumption reaches saturation levels.
  • Over the next decade, Asia is anticipated to account for just over one third of the total meat and poultry production growth.  Asia will show significant gains in pork and chicken production over the next ten years.  China and Hong Kong’s production growth is expected to account for over one half of the world’s increase in pork production and nearly 20 percent of the world’s increase in chicken production from 2010 to 2020.