Washington Report

Broiler production in major countries is expected to reach 86,982,000 metric tons in 2014, 2.8 percent above the 84,640,000 tons estimated for 2013, according to the “Livestock and Poultry: World Market and Trade” report issued this month by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. The United States, China, and Brazil are expected to remain the top three broiler producing countries. None of the top 11 individually listed countries are forecast to have lower production next year.

For 2014, global broiler production continues to achieve new records rising 18 percent in five years. More importantly, the analysts noted, the rate of growth is expected to rise for the first time in four years on declining costs and price competitiveness vis-à-vis other meat proteins. Global exports have now expanded by over 25 percent in the past five years, with more than 80 percent of that growth attributed to Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan African demand. Non-traditional exporters such as Turkey and Ukraine have a logistical and competitive advantage in those markets when compared with traditional exporters, Brazil and the United States, FAS said.

Broiler exports in 2014 are forecast to increase 3.6 percent to 10,765,000 tons compared with 10,393,000 tons estimated for 2013 and 27.8 percent when compared with the 8,433,000 tons in 2009. Brazil and the United States are the top two broiler exporters and will likely account for over 65 percent of total world broiler exports in 2014. Of the 11 individually listed exporting countries, nine are forecast to increase exports in 2014 with China and Chile remaining flat when compared with estimated 2013 export levels. European Union exports in 2014 will be relatively flat, up only 10,000 tons over 2013.

FAS reported the following:

Brazil: Production is forecast up slightly to a record 13.0 million tons as a result of ample feed supplies. However, domestic consumption is constrained by the high level of consumer debt and competition from beef and pork. Exports remain at a record 3.6 million tons with the weaker Real. Demand from the Middle East has been expanding because Brazilian exporters can supply Halal-certified whole birds unlike certain other traditional competitors.

India: Production is forecast to rise 6 percent to 3.6 million tons fueled by escalating demand for animal protein and a rising preference for processed poultry products, an indication of changing tastes and preferences. The United States and Brazil continue to seek access to this closed and potentially lucrative market.

Russia: Production has been expanding rapidly to a record 3.3 million tons based on government support to improve genetics, construct new enterprises, and modernize existing ones. Government sales of low-priced feedgrains should reduce costs and help stimulate production. Imports  are forecast to decline slightly to 530,000 tons with greater production and falling prices. Exports are up 8 percent to 65,000 tons driven by stronger demand from Kazakhstan.

China: Production is forecast up slightly to a record 13.7 million tons due to new government subsidies for breeding stock purchases. Although Avian Influenza reemerged in Hebei and Guangzhou provinces during the summer, consumption is increasing gradually along with confidence in domestic poultry. Exports, primarily to Japan, are expected to remain flat at 415,000 tons.

European Union: Production is forecast to expand to a record 9.9 million tons as a result of greater domestic demand for lower cost supplies of animal protein and reduced feed costs. Exports remain flat at 1.1 million tons. The recent suspension of export refunds for poultry meat is expected to diminish competitiveness.

Thailand: Production is forecast to rise by 8 percent to a record 1.6 million tons due to greater demand and lower feed costs. Despite the recent exit of a major producer and processor (Saha Farm Group), and subsequent price increase, consumption is not expected to be constrained. Exports are up 7 percent to 580,000 tons on higher demand from Japan and the European Union.

Turkey: Production is forecast up 3 percent to a record 1.8 million tons and exports are forecast to jump over 20 percent to 440,000 tons on  growing demand from Iraq and other Middle East markets. As a result of a logistical advantage and the ability to supply Halal-certified whole birds, exports have more than quadrupled over the past five years.

Mexico: Production is slightly higher at about 3.0 million tons. Continued sector consolidation and improved efficiencies, along with declining feed prices are expected to help offset biosecurity costs related to AI. Imports, mostly from the United States, are forecast to expand to 690,000 tons.

Argentina: Production is projected up slightly at a record 2.1 million tons. Lower feed prices and growth in domestic demand will support the expansion. Exports are forecast up 10 percent to 355,000 tons with greater demand from Venezuela, South Africa and Chile.

Saudi Arabia: Imports are forecast to expand to a record 825,000 tons on growing demand for ready-to-cook and processed poultry products, reflecting changes in tastes, preferences and demographics.

Iraq: Imports are forecast up 7 percent to a record 700,000 tons with a greater share of the market captured by Turkey at the expense of Brazil and the United States.

Broiler production and broiler exports data are as follows:

The complete report can be viewed here.