Positive changes in 2018 per capita beef, pork, and poultry disappearance are expected to be driven largely by production increases, but also by changes in trade, according to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report now available.
The broiler per capita disappearance increase, 1.3 percent to 91.3 pounds, is due to anticipated production growth of 1.9 percent plus a small increase in exports (+0.8 percent year over year). The turkey per capita in 2018 is expected to increase 1.1 percent to 17 pounds. The increase derives from larger production—1.9 percent over the 2017 turkey production forecast. The increase in turkey per capita is anticipated even though turkey exports are expected to increase 7.8 percent in 2018. The strong increase derives from the continued recovery of exports, after the sharp decline in 2015 due to disease problems.
Forecast broiler production was increased slightly for the second quarter, and the price forecast was increased for the third quarter. Egg production has remained above last year as expected, and no forecasts for eggs were revised. Due to the slowdown in turkey poultry placements, coupled with sustained low prices for whole birds and most cuts, the forecast for 2017 turkey production was reduced by 30 million pounds to 6.062 billion pounds. In addition, the 2018 forecast was reduced by 75 million pounds to 6.180 billion pounds.
May broiler meat production was 3.6 billion pounds, approximately 0.4 percent above last year on a per day basis. Growth in the average weight of broilers has remained sluggish, but more birds have been available for slaughter. Greater bird availability contributed to the second-quarter forecast being raised slightly to 10.4 billion pounds.
Broiler exports in May were 573 million pounds, up 1.7 percent from last year. Shipments to Angola were 37 million pounds higher than May 2016, a month that represented abnormally low exports to the country compared to prior years. While May shipments to South Africa were 9 million pounds higher than last year, they have slowed in the last two months, as an impending quota limit has loomed.
Cumulative exports of broiler meat to all destinations through May were up 4.2 percent. Weekly prices for whole broilers (national composite) remained strong in recent weeks, following seasonal expectations. As of the week ending July 7, prices were at $1.08 per pound. While prices will likely experience a normal seasonal decline in the near future, the recent price strength supported an increase in the third-quarter price forecast to $0.91- 0.95 per pound. The fourth-quarter forecast and the 2018 forecasts were left unchanged.
For beef, the 1.3-percent increase in per capita disappearance to 57.9 pounds is the result of a 2.2-percent increase in the 2018 production forecast, together with stronger beef imports (2.9 percent larger than the 2017 forecast) and a 1.9-percent increase in beef exports.
The 1.7-percent change in the pork per capita in 2018 to 50.9 pounds, the largest per capita disappearance since 2004, is expected even though exports are forecast to increase 3.8 percent next year. The current pork industry expansion, with production next year expected to increase 3.5 percent, drives the expected increase in per capita pork disappearance.
Eggs and Egg Products May table egg production totaled 644 million dozen, approximately 3.3 percent above last year. More layers and increased eggs per hen contributed to the increase. Forecast production of all eggs was left unchanged at 8,749 million dozen in 2017 and 8,890 million dozen in 2018.
May egg and egg product exports were 26 million dozen (shell-egg equivalent), up about 29 percent from last year but weaker than either 2013 or 2014. Most of the export increase over last year was accounted for by more shipments to South Korea and the United Arab Emirates. Respectively, these countries were shipped 1.8 and 1.4 million dozen eggs (shell-egg equivalent); most of these exports were processed egg products. Canada, Italy, and Mexico accounted for much of the remaining export growth in May.
Recent egg prices (large grade A eggs, New York) moved up late in June and have carried some momentum into July, reaching $0.84 per dozen on July 12. The third-quarter price forecast remained at $0.81-$0.85 per dozen as prices were not expected to increase much further until later in the year. Subsequent forecasts were left unchanged.
