USDA this week released the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Corn production is estimated at 12.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.5 million acre cut to harvested area. Total corn use is reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion. The season average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.276 billion bushels, down 69 million bushels led by reductions for Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas. The soybean export forecast is reduced 55 million bushels to two billion, reflecting lower supplies, reduced import demand for China, and a higher export forecast for Brazil. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is projected at $14.20 per bushel, up 20 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $425 per short ton, up $15.
Broiler production is reduced for the first quarter based on recent hatchery data. Exports in 2022 are raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Prices are projected lower as weaker prices in late 2022 are expected to carry over into 2023.
The full report can be found here and additional data can be found below.
| U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use | ||||
| Feed Grains | 2020/21 | 2021/22 Est. | 2022/23 Proj. | 2022/23 Proj. |
| Dec. | Jan. | |||
| Million Acres | ||||
| Area Planted | 102.3 | 105.8 | 100.5 | 100.4 |
| Area Harvested | 90.6 | 94.4 | 89.6 | 87.1 |
| Metric Tons | ||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.11 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 4.11 |
| Million Metric Tons | ||||
| Beginning Stocks | 51.8 | 34 | 37.7 | 37.6 |
| Production | 372.6 | 397.5 | 364.5 | 358.2 |
| Imports | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Supply, Total | 426.6 | 433.8 | 405.3 | 398.9 |
| Feed Residual | 146.7 | 148.6 | 138.2 | 137.7 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 168.8 | 177.1 | 175.8 | 175.6 |
| Domestic, Total | 315.4 | 325.8 | 314.1 | 313.3 |
| Exports | 77.2 | 70.5 | 56.8 | 51.6 |
| Use, Total | 392.6 | 296.2 | 370.9 | 364.9 |
| Ending Stocks | 34 | 37.6 | 34.4 | 34 |
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| U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production (Broilers) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products (Broilers) |
||
| Million Pounds | Cents/lb. | ||
| 2021 | Annual | 44,899 | 101.2 |
| 2022 | I | 11,170 | 135.1 |
| II | 11,279 | 167.5 | |
| III | 11,896 | 136.1 | |
| IV | 11,900 | 123.5 | |
| Dec. Proj. | 46,095 | 140.9 | |
| Jan. Est. | 46,245 | 140.5 | |
| 2023 | I | 11,475 | 127 |
| II | 11,575 | 130 | |
| III | 12,050 | 128 | |
| IV | 11,800 | 129 | |
| Dec. Proj. | 46,925 | 131 | |
| Jan. Est. | 46,900 | 128.5 |
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| U.S. Meats Supply and Use – Broiler | |||||||||
| Beginning Production | Total | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita 2/ 3/ |
|||||
| stocks | 1/ | Imports | Supply | Exports | |||||
| Million Pound /4 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 830 | 44,419 | 155 | 45,403 | 7,355 | 705 | 37,343 | 96.6 | |
| 2022 Est. |
Dec. | 705 | 45,602 | 187 | 46,493 | 7,262 | 840 | 38,391 | 99 |
| Jan. | 705 | 45,750 | 179 | 46,634 | 7,282 | 850 | 38,502 | 99.3 | |
| 2023 Proj. |
Dec. | 840 | 46,423 | 180 | 47,443 | 7,345 | 830 | 39,268 | 100.9 |
| Jan. | 850 | 46,398 | 180 | 47,428 | 7,315 | 830 | 39,282 | 100.9 | |
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