USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed that growth in broiler production is slowed with lower prices expected to reduce producer margins.
Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, smaller exports, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 55 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2022/23, reflecting reductions in corn used for exports, glucose and dextrose, and starch. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection and if realized, would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than last month’s projection.
Soybeans: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include higher beginning stocks and lower production and exports. Beginning stocks are raised on higher 2022/23 imports. Soybean production for 2023/24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2023/24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down two percent from last year. With soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.70 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $380 per short ton, up five dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is 62 cents per pound, up two cents.
Meat and Poultry: For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef and turkey production. Growth in broiler production is slowed with lower prices expected to reduce producer margins. Broiler price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered as well.
The full WASDE report for August can be found here.
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| FEED GRAINS | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Proj. | 2023/24 Proj. | |
| Jul | Aug | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 105.8 | 100.4 | 106.8 * | 106.6 | |
| Area Harvested | 94.4 | 87.1 | 95.6 * | 95.5 | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.21 | 4.11 | 4.23 | 4.17 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 34 | 37.6 | 38 | 39.4 | |
| Production | 397.5 | 358.2 | 404.2 | 398.5 | |
| Imports | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Supply, Total | 433.8 | 398.6 | 444.5 | 440.1 | |
| Feed and Residual | 148.5 | 141.2 | 147.6 | 146.8 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 177.2 | 174.1 | 176.6 | 175.9 | |
| Domestic, Total | 325.7 | 315.3 | 324.2 | 322.7 | |
| Exports | 70.5 | 43.9 | 59.9 | 58.6 | |
| Use, Total | 396.2 | 359.2 | 384.1 | 381.3 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.6 | 39.4 | 60.3 | 58.8 | |
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| Year and Quarter (Broilers) |
U.S. Quarterly Animal Production | U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products | |
| Million Pounds | Cents/lbs | ||
| 2022 | III | 11896 | 136.1 |
| IV | 11861 | 123.5 | |
| Annual | 46206 | 140.5 | |
| 2023 | I | 11549 | 124.5 |
| II | 11527 | 139.3 | |
| III* | 12000 | 110 | |
| IV* | 11900 | 115 | |
| Annual | |||
| Jul Proj. | 47099 | 128.4 | |
| Aug Proj. | 46976 | 122.2 | |
| 2024 | I* | 11710 | 120 |
| II* | 11710 | 125 | |
| Annual | |||
| Jul Proj. | 47820 | 129 | |
| Aug Proj. | 47470 | 121 |
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| Meat Supply and Use (Broilers in Millions per Pound) |
|||||||||
| Start Stocks |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2022 | 705 | 45711 | 176 | 46593 | 7290 | 892 | 38411 | 98.9 | |
| 2023 Proj. | Jul | 892 | 46595 | 85 | 47572 | 7383 | 870 | 39320 | 100.7 |
| Aug | 892 | 46473 | 115 | 47480 | 7293 | 880 | 39308 | 100.7 | |
| 2024 Proj. | Jul | 870 | 47308 | 84 | 48262 | 7570 | 900 | 39792 | 101.3 |
| Aug | 880 | 46962 | 130 | 47972 | 7515 | 900 | 39557 | 100.7 | |
