USDA’s January 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicated an expected increase in broiler exports in 2024. Recent trade data have shown a positive trend for the industry.

Below are key takeaways from the report for industry-relevant sectors:

Chicken:  The forecast for the poultry production and red meat sectors for 2023 is raised from last month due to higher beef, pork, and broiler production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December.  Broiler production is raised for the first half based on recent hatchery data. Once again, broiler exports in 2023 are raised on recent trade data, and 2024 exports are also raised slightly.

Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, larger food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), increased feed and residual use, and higher ending stock. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up 108 million as an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre is partly offset by a 0.6 million acre decline in the harvested area. Total corn use has risen by 75 million bushels to 14.6 billion. Corn used for ethanol has raised 50 million bushels to 5.4 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion. With supply rising more than use, 2023/24 corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. The season-average corn price producers receive is lowered by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel.

Soybean:  Soybean production is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million, led by increases for Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota. Harvested area is estimated at 822.4 million acres, down 0.4 million from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels. Soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month. Expoert and crush forecasts are unchanged. Ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million.

The full WASDE report can be found here.

 

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FEED GRAINS 2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Dec Jan
Million Acres
Area Planted 105.5 100 107.7 107.5
Area Harvested  94.1 86.6 96.7 96
Metric Tons
Yield per Harvested Acre 4.21 4.11 4.13 4.19
Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 34 37.5 37 37.1
Production 396 356.1 400 402.6
Imports 2.3 2.9 2.4 2.4
    Supply, Total 432.4 396.5 439.4 442.1
Feed and Residual 147.4 142.3 147 147.6
Food, Seed & Industrial 177 172.1 176.5 177.5
    Domestic, Total 324.4 314.4 323.5 325.1
Exports 70.5 45 59 59.3
    Use, Total 394.9 359.4 382.5 384.4
Ending Stocks 37.5 37.1 56.9 57.7

 

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Year and Quarter U.S. Quarterly Broiler Production (Million Pounds) U.S. Quarterly Prices for Broiler Products (Cents/Lbs)
2022 Annual 46206 140.5
2023 I 11549 124.5
II 11545 139.3
III 11679 115.3
IV 11650 118.5
Annual
Dec Proj. 46373 123.5
Jan Est. 46423 124.4
2024 I* 11450 123
II* 11675 130
III* 11850 125
IV* 11700 125
Annual
Dec Proj. 46625 124
Jan Proj. 46675 126

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Meat Supply and Use
(Broilers in Millions per Pound)
Start
Stocks
Prod. Imports Total
Supply
Exports Ending
Stocks
Total
Use
Per
Capita
2022 705 45711 176 46593 7290 892 38411 98.9
2023 Est. Dec 892 45876 133 46902 7205 850 38847 99.5
Jan 892 45926 130 46948 7255 850 38844 99.5
2024 Proj. Dec 850 46126 180 47156 7245 860 39051 99.5
Jan 850 46176 180 47206 7275 860 39071 99.6