USDA’s February 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised broiler production for the first quarter on the expectations of heavier bird weights.
Below are key takeaways from the report for industry-relevant sectors:
Chicken: Broiler production is raised for the first quarter on expectations of heavier bird weights. Broiler exports are reduced on higher U.S. prices and weaker import demand. First-half broiler prices are projected to be higher based on current prices.
Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for lower food, seed, and industrial use and larger ending stocks. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced to 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price producers receive is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Soybean: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35 million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong competition with Brazil. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast to remain unchanged at $380 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 51 cents per pound, down three cents.
The full WASDE report can be found here.
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FEED GRAINS | 2021-2 | 2022-3 Est. | 2023-4 Proj. | 2023-4 Proj. | |
Jan | Feb | ||||
Million Acres | |||||
Area Planted | 105.5 | 100 | 107.5 | 107.5 | |
Area Harvested | 94.1 | 86.6 | 96 | 96 | |
Metric Tons | |||||
Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.21 | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.19 | |
Million Metric Tons | |||||
Beginning Stocks | 34 | 37.5 | 37.1 | 37.1 | |
Production | 396 | 356.1 | 402.6 | 402.6 | |
Imports | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | |
Supply, Total | 432.4 | 396.5 | 442.1 | 442 | |
Feed and Residual | 147.4 | 142.3 | 147.6 | 147.5 | |
Food, Seed & Industrial | 177 | 172.1 | 177.5 | 177 | |
Domestic, Total | 324.4 | 314.4 | 325.1 | 324.6 | |
Exports | 70.5 | 45 | 59.3 | 59.5 | |
Use, Total | 394.9 | 359.4 | 384.4 | 384.1 | |
Ending Stocks | 37.5 | 37.1 | 57.7 | 58 |
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Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production (Million Pounds) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products (Cents/Lbs.) |
|
2022 | Annual | 46206 | 140.5 |
2023 | I | 11549 | 124.5 |
II | 11545 | 139.3 | |
III | 11679 | 115.3 | |
IV | 11610 | 118.5 | |
Annual | |||
Jan Est. | 46423 | 124.4 | |
Feb Est. | 46383 | 124.4 | |
2024 | I* | 11550 | 128 |
II* | 11675 | 131 | |
III* | 11850 | 125 | |
IV* | 11700 | 125 | |
Annual | |||
Jan Proj. | 46675 | 126 | |
Feb Proj. | 46775 | 127 |
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U.S. Meat Supply & Use (Broilers in Millions per Pound) |
|||||||||
Start Stocks |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
2022 | 705 | 45711 | 176 | 46593 | 7290 | 892 | 38411 | 98.9 | |
2023 Est. | Jan | 892 | 45926 | 130 | 46948 | 7255 | 850 | 38844 | 99.5 |
Feb | 892 | 45886 | 131 | 46910 | 7265 | 845 | 38800 | 99.4 | |
2024 Proj. | Jan | 850 | 46176 | 180 | 47206 | 7275 | 860 | 39071 | 99.6 |
Feb | 845 | 46275 | 215 | 47334 | 7215 | 860 | 39259 | 100.1 |