USDA’s April 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed higher broiler production on recent hatch and bird weight data. However, exports are lowered based on recent trade data.
Below are key takeaways from the report for industry-relevant sectors:
Chicken: Broiler production is raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. Broiler exports are lowered based on recent trade data and expectations that higher prices may affect trade in a number of price-sensitive markets. Broiler prices are raised based on recent price strength carrying into the rest of the year.
Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn use for ethanol, feed, and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Feed and residual use increased by 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks are lowered by 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered by five cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Soybean: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 includes lower imports, residual, and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean trade is reduced on pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly in South Africa due to drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacts yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 0.2 million tons to 10.5 million.
The full WASDE report can be found here.
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| FEED GRAINS | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Proj. | 2023/24 Proj. | |
| Mar | Apr | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 105.5 | 100 | 107.5 | 107.5 | |
| Area Harvested | 94.1 | 86.6 | 96 | 96 | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.21 | 4.11 | 4.19 | 4.19 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 34 | 37.5 | 37.1 | 37.1 | |
| Production | 396 | 356.1 | 402.6 | 402.6 | |
| Imports | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Supply, Total | 432.4 | 396.5 | 442 | 442 | |
| Feed and Residual | 147.4 | 142.3 | 147.5 | 148.3 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 177 | 172.1 | 176.9 | 177.4 | |
| Domestic, Total | 324.4 | 314.4 | 324.4 | 325.7 | |
| Exports | 70.5 | 45 | 59.7 | 59.7 | |
| Use, Total | 394.9 | 359.4 | 384.1 | 385.4 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.5 | 37.1 | 57.9 | 56.6 | |
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| Year and Quarter (Broilers) |
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production (Million Pounds) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products (Cents/Lbs) | |
| 2022 | Annual | 46207 | 140.5 |
| 2023 | I | 11549 | 124.5 |
| II | 11546 | 139.3 | |
| III | 11681 | 115.3 | |
| IV | 11611 | 118.5 | |
| Annual | |||
| Mar Est. | 46387 | 124.4 | |
| Apr Est. | 46387 | 124.4 | |
| 2024 | I | 11725 | 128 |
| II* | 11725 | 137 | |
| III* | 11850 | 126 | |
| IV* | 11800 | 126 | |
| Annual | |||
| Mar Proj. | 46875 | 127 | |
| Apr Proj. | 47100 | 129 | |
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| U.S. Meat Supply & Use (Broilers in Millions per Pound) |
|||||||||
| Start Stocks |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2022 | 705 | 45713 | 176 | 46594 | 7290 | 892 | 38412 | 98.9 | |
| 2023 Est. | Mar | 892 | 45890 | 131 | 46914 | 7265 | 835 | 38814 | 99.5 |
| Apr | 892 | 45890 | 131 | 46914 | 7265 | 835 | 38814 | 99.5 | |
| 2024 Proj. | Mar | 835 | 46373 | 215 | 47423 | 7165 | 860 | 39398 | 100.4 |
| Apr | 835 | 46596 | 178 | 47609 | 7060 | 800 | 39749 | 101.3 | |
