USDA’s October 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised the forecast for 2025 for broiler products due to a higher price outlook due to an increase in overall demand.
Chicken: The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. Broiler production for the third quarter is reduced based on recent slaughter data. This more than offsets a higher fourth quarter forecast due to recent hatchery data. The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef, pork, and broiler production. Broiler production is raised due to a higher price outlook. The broiler export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data and weaker competitiveness relative to other major exporters. The broiler export forecast for 2025 is also lowered, as increased competition from other major exporters is expected to carry into 2025. The broiler price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on recent price data and expected demand strength.
Corn: This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, larger exports, and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is raised slightly to 15 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are cut 58 million bushels to two billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Soybean: Soybean production is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.3 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies are lowered two million bushels to 4.9 billion. With a slightly lower residual and no change to exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels.
The entire October 2024 report can be found here.
Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Broiler Production (Million Pounds) |
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Broiler Products (Cents/Lbs) |
|
2023 | IV | 11,611 | 118.5 |
Annual | 46,387 | 124.4 | |
2024 | I | 11,430 | 128.0 |
II | 11,654 | 132.1 | |
III | 11,900 | 127.4 | |
IV* | 12,100 | 129.0 | |
Annual | |||
Sep Proj. | 47,109 | 128.0 | |
Oct Proj. | 47,084 | 129.1 | |
2025 | I* | 11,700 | 130.0 |
II* | 11,825 | 133.0 | |
III* | 12,200 | 127.0 | |
Annual | |||
Sep Proj. | 47,675 | 128 | |
Oct Proj. | 47,825 | 129 |
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U.S. Broiler Supply and Use (Million Pounds) |
|||||||||
Start Stock |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita | ||
2023 | 892 | 45,890 | 131 | 46,914 | 7,260 | 835 | 38,819 | 99.5 | |
2024 Proj. | Sep | 835 | 46,605 | 148 | 47,588 | 6,766 | 805 | 40,017 | 102.0 |
Oct | 835 | 46,580 | 148 | 47,563 | 6,721 | 800 | 40,042 | 102.1 | |
2025 Proj. | Sep | 805 | 47,165 | 160 | 48,130 | 6,875 | 805 | 40,450 | 102.5 |
Oct | 800 | 47,313 | 160 | 48,273 | 6,810 | 805 | 40,658 | 103.1 |