Cuba’s economy, which has been struggling since 2016 and fared poorly during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, is facing lower tourism revenues, decreased agricultural output, energy shortages, and double-digit inflation, according to a report this week released by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), “Cuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports.”

ERS noted this continuing economic downturn is limiting Cuba’s ability to import agricultural products. Along with reductions in domestic agricultural production, which have weakened Cuba’s ability to supply its own food, Cuba faces a growing food security problem.

Based on the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model, nearly 12.8 percent (1.4 million people) of Cuba’s population in 2023 was estimated to be food insecure.

The study found that between marketing years 2016/17 and 2023/24, Cuba’s annual corn production declined from 404,000 metric tons to 250,000 metric tons, a 38-percent decrease. Rice production fell from 335,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons (milled basis), a 58-percent decrease. In addition, Cuba’s annual sugar exports (once an important source of foreign exchange that could be used to finance imports) plummeted from 1.1 million metric tons to 110,000 metric tons (raw value), a 90.5-percent decrease. In addition, Cuba’s grain production (rice and corn mainly) has been declining since 2016, with fewer than 400,000 metric tons produced each year from 2020 to 2023, according to estimates by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Because of this lower domestic agricultural production, Cuba’s ability to import food has assumed a more substantial role in the country’s food security. After U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba plunged to $157 million in 2020, this trade rebounded to $299 million in 2021, $319 million in 2022, and $337 million in 2023. Chicken meat accounted for 89.4 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba during 2020–23.