Republicans have flipped control of the Senate in this week’s elections, winning 53 seats so far with two states left uncalled. Meanwhile, control of the House of Representatives still hangs in the balance.
As of this writing, Republicans have flipped four Senate seats. Former Governor Jim Justice won in West Virginia to replace retiring Democrat Joe Manchin, Republican Dave McCormick flipped the Pennsylvania seat from longtime incumbent and former Governor Bob Casey, Tim Sheehy flipped the Montana seat held by Democrat Jon Tester, and Bernie Moreno flipped Ohio from incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown.
That brings Republicans’ majority to 53-45 with two races outstanding: Nevada and Arizona. Incumbent Democrats hold small leads in both races. If these results hold, the balance of power in the Senate will shift from 51-49 Democrat to 53-47 Republican.
Senate Republicans will now conduct party elections over the next few months to determine the chamber’s leadership. South Dakota Senator John Thune and Texas Senator John Cornyn, both veterans of Senate leadership, are competing for support within the party to become the Senate Majority Leader. Florida Sen. Rick Scott is also running for the position, but his effort is viewed as a longshot. Republicans have not yet announced a specific date for leadership elections.
For Senate leadership elections, a candidate needs a simple majority. If no candidate gets one on the first ballot, the candidate with the least number of votes is cast aside and the race goes head-to-head with the top two candidates.
Meanwhile, it’s too soon to tell who will control the House of Representatives. A party must win 218 seats to control the chamber. News outlets differ on how many races are still outstanding, but the consensus is that Republicans have won and/or are winning in enough seats that, if the results hold, the party will control the House. This would be a clean sweep of power for Republicans in Washington.
Votes are continuing to be counted across the country, but California, Arizona, and Oregon are particularly behind in calling races. Some states accept postmarked ballots for days or even a week after the election, so results may not be known in some of the tightest races for some time.
Still, House Republicans have said they expect to hold leadership elections on Wednesday, November 13 to fill the roles of Speaker, Majority Leader, Majority Whip, and other positions. Those elections could be delayed pending current vote counting. If Republicans retain their majority, incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to be the favorite to remain in the Speaker role and current Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) is also the favorite to remain in that role. If they lose the majority, a significant shakeup is expected in Republican leadership.
House Democrats will hold their leadership elections on November 19. House majority leadership roles must pass the full chamber by a simple majority vote, while minority leadership roles must simply pass with a secret ballot requiring a majority of that party’s members.
