Changing consumer preferences suggest whole turkeys may be losing their grip as the dominant center-of-plate choice for Thanksgiving dinner, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. While ample turkey supplies and favorable prices leading into the holiday season indicate turkey will retain its position as the traditional protein of choice this Thanksgiving, consumer trends are making the future less certain. Growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies, and increasing competition from other proteins may all impact the longevity of the holiday turkey.
According to the report, a downward trend in U.S. turkey supplies, coupled with changing traditions and consumer openness to other animal protein options, could trigger a longer-term decline in holiday turkey sales.
Promotional activity around the holidays drives much of what shoppers put in the cart. Thanksgiving comes with a widely utilized retail tactic called “loss-leader” to drive foot traffic. Retailers typically price a turkey low, at a loss, or sometimes free, in hopes that sales on the remainder of the consumer’s Thanksgiving meal shopping cart will include items that help offset those losses.
While turkeys still prominently appear on the front page of retail advertisements in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving, USDA’s feature activity index for weeks 40-49 has shown a noteworthy decline over the past few years. Frozen turkey features in these key weeks were down 36 percent in 2023 from 2018 levels. However, while not to the same degree, ham features were down 14 percent over the same period. CoBank noted that this could partially explain falling disappearance rates at the key time frame of the year.
For more information about CoBank’s take on turkey supply, demand and pricing, visit the full report by clicking here.
