WHAT HAPPENED: Brazil confirmed Newcastle disease on a commercial turkey farm of about 6,000 birds in western Santa Catarina. The lab confirmation came October 18, from samples taken September 21. Under its sanitary protocol with China, Brazil has stopped all poultry shipments to its biggest buyer. Mexico also moved quickly to suspend imports.
WHY IT MATTERS: Brazil is the main competitor for U.S. chicken exports. China took about 10% of Brazil’s poultry exports from January through September, roughly 420,000 MT. Santa Catarina accounts for about 23% of Brazil’s chicken exports, so a state-wide restriction would have a bigger effect than a local one.
WHAT’S NEXT: Analysts expect a short disruption. The last outbreak, in July 2024, cut Brazil’s chicken exports about 25% for the affected month, but they recovered quickly once markets reopened. JPMorgan said it expects an even smaller impact this time, because several countries now restrict trade by radius rather than nationwide.
