Global broiler production next year is forecast to be a record 83,543,000 metric tons, 1.4 percent above the 82,422,000 tons estimated for 2012, according to the “Livestock and Poultry: World Market and Trade” report issued yesterday by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). U.S. broiler production is forecast to be 16.341 million tons in 2013, 0.8 percent less than the 16.476 million tons estimated for this year. U.S. broiler production accounts for 19.6 percent of world production compared with 22.7 percent in 2008.
Following the United States as the world’s largest broiler producer are China and Brazil with production forecasts for 2013 of 14,100,000 tons and 13,005,000 tons, respectively. Chinese broiler production next year is expected to increase 2.9 percent and Brazil will likely increase 2.0 percent.
FAS reported that rising incomes, an expanding middle class, and stronger demand for animal protein are stimulating broiler production in China, India, and Brazil. These three countries combined account for 85 percent of the forecast growth in world production next year.
India’s broiler production is forecast to increase 8.2 percent to 3,420,000 tons. Despite the past years’ outbreaks of avian influenza, production is expanding rapidly on rising domestic consumption, changing culturally driven tastes and preferences, and ample domestic feed supplies. Russia’s production may increase 3.6 percent to 2,850,000 million tons as larger, modern facilities come into full operation. Government programs are aimed at mitigating rising feed costs and supporting the construction of new poultry farms.
EU production could rise 1.1 percent to 9,580,000 million tons as consumers substitute poultry for red meat. Production is expected to increase in all major EU producing countries, except France, where the industry is restructuring following the bankruptcy of the Doux poultry company, the largest exporter of broiler meat in the European Union.
Broiler production in Argentina and Turkey is forecast up 4.4 and 0.8 percent to 2,022,000 tons and 1,700,000 tons, respectively. Production is supported by greater domestic and foreign market demand. Argentina continues to expand production with government credit, ample supplies of feed grains, and a more vertically integrated and efficient sector. Turkey production is higher to meet ever-increasing regional Middle East demand, as well as to offset short domestic supplies of red meat, the report said. On the other hand, Thailand’s forecast is to reduce output 6.5 percent to 1,450,000 million tons after last year’s supply glut and this year’s higher production costs, reversing the recent growth trend.
Global broiler exports are forecast by FAS to be 1.9 percent higher to a record 10,052,000 tons in 2013, primarily on East Asian and Sub-Saharan African demand. Traditional suppliers (Brazil, the United States, and European Union) will continue to dominate the world market, while smaller suppliers (Thailand, Turkey, and Argentina) expand their market share in new and developing markets. Brazil, the world’s leading broiler exporter, is forecast to see its overseas sales rise in 2013 by 3.9 percent to 3,582,000 tons driven by East Asia (China and Hong Kong) and the Middle East (Iraq and Egypt). Gains to the Middle East are supported by their ability to ship whole bird and halal-certified product provides comparative advantages.
EU exports may be up 3.7 percent to 1,120,000 tons as more exports to Western and Southern African markets are expected to offset less to Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, and China. Thai exports are forecast to rise by 7.4 percent to 580,000 tons based on the reopening of the EU market for fresh broiler meat. Additional growth is expected in Southeast Asia, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates.
Broiler exports by Argentina and Turkey are forecast to have exports increase 10.5 and 4.0 percent to 285,000 tons and 260,000 tons, respectively. Both countries are expected to expand in emerging markets in the Middle East. Turkey continues to direct most shipments to Iraq, eroding U.S. and Brazilian market shares. Large investments in expanding export capacity will improve competitiveness in shipping to developing markets such as Libya, the report noted.
U.S. broiler exports are forecast to decline 1.8 percent to 3,152,000 tons due to tighter domestic supplies and waning demand by Russia and Hong Kong. U.S. exports have remained relatively flat over the past few years as declines in some major markets have been offset by gains in a large number of smaller markets. The report “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade” is available here.