USDA’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed that the U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 reduced from last month while higher beef production offset a lower pork and poultry production.
The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022/23 that is partly offset by lower imports.
Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, export inspection data for the month of May, and expectations of competition from Brazil in the coming months. With no supply or use changes for 2023/24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023/24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022/23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America. With increased supplies for 2023/24 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million. The soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork and poultry production. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. No change is made to the broiler export forecast but turkey exports are raised slightly for 2023.
The full WASDE report can be found here.
Further detailed information can be found in the charts below.
| FEED GRAINS | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/24 Proj. | 2023/24 Proj. | |
| May | Jun | ||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 105.8 | 100.4 | 103.6 * | 103.6 * | |
| Area Harvested | 94.4 | 87.1 | 92.6 * | 92.6 * | |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 4.21 | 4.11 | 4.34 | 4.34 | |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 34 | 37.6 | 38.5 | 39.4 | |
| Production | 397.5 | 358.2 | 401.7 | 401.7 | |
| Imports | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Supply, Total | 433.8 | 398.3 | 442.6 | 443.5 | |
| Feed and Residual | 148.7 | 137.6 | 147.3 | 147.3 | |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 177.1 | 175.1 | 176.5 | 176.5 | |
| Domestic, Total | 325.8 | 312.7 | 323.7 | 323.7 | |
| Exports | 70.5 | 46.2 | 59.4 | 59.4 | |
| Use, Total | 396.2 | 358.9 | 383.1 | 383.1 | |
| Ending Stocks | 37.6 | 39.4 | 59.5 | 60.4 | |
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| Year and Quarter | U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production (Broiler) | U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products (Broilers) | |
| Million | Cents/lb. | ||
| 2022 | II | 11279 | 167.5 |
| III | 11896 | 136.1 | |
| IV | 11861 | 123.5 | |
| Annual | 46206 | 140.5 | |
| 2023 | I | 11549 | 124.5 |
| II* | 11300 | 142 | |
| III* | 12150 | 127 | |
| IV* | 11900 | 127 | |
| Annual | |||
| May Proj. | 47048 | 131.6 | |
| Jun Proj. | 46899 | 130.1 | |
| 2024 | I* | 11760 | 127 |
| Annual | |||
| May Proj. | 47820 | 129 | |
| Jun Proj. | 47820 | 129 | |
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| Meat Supply and Use (Broilers in Millions per Pound) |
|||||||||
| Start Stocks |
Prod. | Imports | Total Supply |
Exports | Ending Stocks |
Total Use |
Per Capita |
||
| 2022 | 705 | 45711 | 176 | 46593 | 7278 | 892 | 38423 | 98.9 | |
| 2023 Proj. | May | 892 | 46545 | 68 | 47505 | 7383 | 880 | 39242 | 100.5 |
| Jun | 892 | 46397 | 70 | 47360 | 7383 | 880 | 39097 | 100.1 | |
| 2024 Proj. | May | 880 | 47308 | 40 | 48228 | 7570 | 900 | 39758 | 101.2 |
| Jun | 880 | 47308 | 40 | 48228 | 7570 | 900 | 39758 | 101.2 | |
