The outlook for global poultry markets in 2024 remains moderately positive, with demand expected to gradually recover due to better affordability driven by lower costs, lower inflation rates, and rising incomes. According to Rabobank’s Global Poultry Quarterly Q2 2024 Report, this will lead to less consumer focus on prices in 2024 compared to 2023, which will support some recovery in demand for value-added poultry and improved demand in food service. Business opportunities in these markets will recover. However, price consciousness among consumers will remain a key driver.
Operational challenges will persist. Feed costs have decreased by an average of 15 percent to 25 percent compared to 2023. However, from a supply/demand perspective, global commodity prices appear to have reached their lowest point, primarily due to concerns about geopolitics, trade issues, and weather (such as El Niño).
Potential distribution challenges are the biggest wild card for the outlook due to geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, attacks in the Red Sea, and drought affecting water levels in the Panama Canal. Given increasing rerouting via southern routes, these challenges could impact global trade, with rising costs, delayed supply, and constrained container availability. Trade flows to and from Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are especially vulnerable to changes. This could increase focus on regional trade, where possible, or otherwise lead to higher costs and potentially delayed supply, especially for goods primarily produced in a single region.
Avian influenza (AI) remains an ongoing concern. AI risks will shift in the coming months to the Southern Hemisphere, where more countries are turning to vaccines to protect the industry. Particular attention will be paid to AI risks in key exporting countries like Brazil and Thailand, where outbreaks could challenge global market conditions and trade flows.
Notwithstanding these challenges, global poultry trade is expected to grow in line with forecast demand growth, with processed poultry trade expected to gradually recover after a weak 2023.
