USDA raised slightly second quarter broiler production based on June production data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is raised from last month, as increases in broiler production and commercial beef more than offset declines in pork and turkey production. The increase in beef production reflects relatively large cattle placements in the second quarter which will likely impact fourth quarter cattle slaughter.
Pork production is reduced on lower expected slaughter in the third quarter. Forecast turkey production is reduced on a slower-than-expected recovery in demand and relatively poor returns to producers. Egg production is increased modestly on recent hatchery data. For 2018, the beef production forecast is raised from the previous month, as expected higher placements in late 2017 and early 2018 result in higher steer and heifer slaughter. Pork, poultry, and egg production forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from the previous month.
For 2017, beef imports are raised, as higher-than-expected shipments of lean processing beef from Oceania in June are expected to carry into the third quarter. The beef export forecast is lowered from last month on recent trade data and an expected slowdown in global demand for the remainder of 2017. Pork imports are raised slightly on recent trade data. The second quarter pork export forecast is adjusted for June data, but the forecast for the remainder of the year is unchanged. The broiler export forecast is reduced on weak foreign demand. Turkey exports are adjusted to reflect June data. For 2018, the beef import forecast is unchanged from the previous month while exports are lowered slightly. Pork, poultry, and egg trade forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.
Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2017 and 2018 as current prices have weakened and larger expected supplies of fed cattle are expected to pressure prices. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2017 and 2018 on continued strength in demand. The annual broiler price forecast for 2017 is raised, but the price forecast for 2018 is unchanged. The turkey price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand. The egg price forecast for 2017 is raised, but no changes are made to the 2018 price forecast.
