Washington Report

USDA’s November 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicated a general decline in broiler production resulting from lowered eggs set and chicks placed data.

Below are key takeaways from the report for industry-relevant sectors.

Chicken: The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month with lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts. Broiler production is lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data point towards further production declines in the fourth quarter. The pace of broiler production growth is reduced from last month. Broiler exports forecasts for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data, with the lowered outlook carrying over into the 2024 export forecast due to weaker international demand and tighter domestic supplies. The price forecast for 2023 is lowered on recent data, but 2024 forecasts are raised with the reduction in expected production. The broiler price forecast for 2023 is lowered on recent data, but 2024 forecasts are raised with the reduction in expected production.

Corn: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million.

Soybean: The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/24 includes increased production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price is reduced 2.0 cents to 61.0 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380.00 per short ton. The global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks, higher production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks.

The full WASDE report can be found here.

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